Risk Analysis and Scientific Method

Much of the work in this volume was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant SES82-05112 from the Program in History and Philosophy of Science and the Division of Policy Research and Analysis. (Any opinions, findings, ...

Author: Kristin Shrader-Frechette

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9789400952416

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 236

View: 149


Much of the work in this volume was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant SES82-05112 from the Program in History and Philosophy of Science and the Division of Policy Research and Analysis. (Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. ) Several of these essays were written because of the impetus afforded by speaking invitations. An earlier version of Chapter 3 was presented in Berkeley in January 1983 at a Principal Investi gators' Conference sponsored by the National Science Foundation, Division of Policy Research and Analysis, Technology Assessment and Risk Assessment Group. In May 1982, an earlier version of Chapter 5 was presented at the meeting of the Society for Philos ophy and Technology, held in conjunction with the American Philosophical Association meeting, Western Division, in Columbus, Ohio. Finally, earlier versions of Chapter 6 were presented in Boston in December 1981 at the Boston Colloquium for the Philosophy of Science, as well as at the University of Delaware in January 1982 and at the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association held in Philadelphia in October 1982. An earlier version of this same chapter was published in Philosophy of Science Association 82, volume 1, ed. T. Nickles, Philosophy of Science Association, East Lansing, Michigan, 1982. A number of people have helped to make this book better than it might have been.

The Science of Risk Analysis

As risk analysis is not considered a distinct field or science in many research funding schemes, applications in risk analysis need to be justified, given their role of solving specific risk problems. This makes it difficult to obtain ...

Author: Terje Aven

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 9780429642722

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 316

View: 608


This book provides a comprehensive demonstration of risk analysis as a distinct science covering risk understanding, assessment, perception, communication, management, governance and policy. It presents and discusses the key pillars of this science, and provides guidance on how to conduct high-quality risk analysis. The Science of Risk Analysis seeks to strengthen risk analysis as a field and science by summarizing and extending current work on the topic. It presents the foundation for a distinct risk field and science based on recent research, and explains the difference between applied risk analysis (to provide risk knowledge and tackle risk problems in relation to for example medicine, engineering, business or climate change) and generic risk analysis (on concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterise, communicate, manage and govern risk). The book clarifies and describes key risk science concepts, and builds on recent foundational work conducted by the Society for Risk Analysis in order to provide new perspectives on science and risk analysis. The topics covered are accompanied by cases and examples relating to current issues throughout. This book is essential reading for risk analysis professionals, scientists, students and practitioners, and will also be of interest to scientists and practitioners from other fields who apply risk analysis in their work.

Quantitative Risk Assessment

But first in Section 3.1 we give some reflections about risk assessment being a scientific method motivated by two interesting editorials of the first issue of the journal Risk Analysis (Cumming, 1981; Weinberg, 1981), in relation to ...

Author: Terje Aven

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 9781139496438

Category: Mathematics


View: 395


Quantitative risk assessments cannot eliminate risk, nor can they resolve trade-offs. They can, however, guide principled risk management and reduction - if the quality of assessment is high and decision makers understand how to use it. This book builds a unifying scientific framework for discussing and evaluating the quality of risk assessments and whether they are fit for purpose. Uncertainty is a central topic. In practice, uncertainties about inputs are rarely reflected in assessments, with the result that many safety measures are considered unjustified. Other topics include the meaning of a probability, the use of probability models, the use of Bayesian ideas and techniques, and the use of risk assessment in a practical decision-making context. Written for professionals, as well as graduate students and researchers, the book assumes basic probability, statistics and risk assessment methods. Examples make concepts concrete, and three extended case studies show the scientific framework in action.

Risk Surprises and Black Swans

3.2.3 The risk analysis science In this section we see knowledge in relation to science, and in particular the science of ... In many categorisations of scientific areas, such as research funding schemes, risk analysis is not mentioned.

Author: Terje Aven

Publisher: Routledge

ISBN: 9781317626329

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 276

View: 344


Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on. Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as ‘Black Swans’. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them. This book recognises the fundamental issues surrounding risk assessment and risk management to help you to understand and prepare for black swan events. Complete with international examples to illustrate ideas and concepts Integrates risk management and resilience based thinking Suitable for a variety of applications including engineering, finance and security.

Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment

National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology, Commission on Life Sciences, Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants. REFERENCES 284 Portier, C.J., ...

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

ISBN: 9780309048941

Category: Science

Page: 668

View: 927


The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.

Risk Analysis and Governance in EU Policy Making and Regulation

The disciplines that intervene in risk assessment, for example animal toxicology, pharmacology, chemistry etc., are indeed branches of natural sciences that comply with the substantive and formal requirements of the scientific method.

Author: Bernardo Delogu

Publisher: Springer

ISBN: 9783319308227

Category: Political Science

Page: 298

View: 151


This book provides an easy, but comprehensive and rigorous access to the main concepts, terminology, methods and procedures of risk analysis intended for all those involved in the EU policy and regulatory decision making on risks. It establishes a common ground of knowledge which enables a more informed dialogue on risks, a closer collaboration between decision makers and scientists and a better appraisal of the potential and limits of risk science. The book also brings together in an accessible way much multidisciplinary knowledge which had been dispersed over many technical documents and specialist books. The EU is in the front line of health, safety and environmental risk management. GMOs, food safety, hazardous chemicals, climate change, radiation hazards, are just a few of the popular risk issues addressed by the EU through policy and regulatory measures. The risk analysis paradigm, including risk assessment, management and communication has been at the core of the EU decision making for a long time already. EU Institutions strive for a science-based approach to risk management. Nevertheless, the dialogue and collaboration on risk issues between policy makers, stakeholders and scientists are still difficult and the potential and limits of science in support of decision making, as well as the basic concepts of risk analysis are not fully understood outside the narrow specialist circles.

The Political Theories of Risk Analysis

2.HISTORICAL. DEBATES. WITHINRISK. ASSESSMENTS. Essential toany discussionofrisk isan appreciation ofthepolitical controversy surrounding scientific methodsof assessment. Ononeside, environmentalists have been sceptical of relying ...

Author: Nicholas P. Guehlstorf

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9781402028823

Category: Science

Page: 200

View: 948


The purpose of this study is to question whether liberal political theories ought to inform the way policymakers and administrators analyze risk in proposed courses of environmental practice. In order to explore the relationship of liberal theory to rational practice in environmental policy, this project examines the risk analysis used to approve the genetically engineered bovine growth hormone in American agricultural policy. The Political Theories of Risk Analysis suggests that American environmental public policy is attempting to assess danger with an incomplete notion of utility, to eliminate the hazards of society with an inadequate contractual justification of political authority, and to publicly debate accepted levels of risk with an unfulfilled critical social theory. Because environmental risk analyses are incorrectly perceived as technically rational and socially apolitical, they result in practices that are muddled and misdirected. Making theoretical foundations explicit, however, could lead to improved practice. Public policy and administrative decisions regarding agricultural biotechnologies should and can function with more concern for democratic values. The Political Theories of Risk Analysis is for environmental scientists, philosophers, public policy planners, applied ethicists, political scientists and environmentalists.

Quantitative Risk Analysis of Air Pollution Health Effects

The causal paradigm proposes that tradi- tional scientific method, while often more time-consuming and difficult than apply- ing judgment to regression models, is a far more reliable guide to determining whether and to what extent ...

Author: Louis Anthony Cox Jr.

Publisher: Springer Nature

ISBN: 9783030573584

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 543

View: 779


This book highlights quantitative risk assessment and modeling methods for assessing health risks caused by air pollution, as well as characterizing and communicating remaining uncertainties. It shows how to apply modern data science, artificial intelligence and machine learning, causal analytics, mathematical modeling, and risk analysis to better quantify human health risks caused by environmental and occupational exposures to air pollutants. The adverse health effects that are caused by air pollution, and preventable by reducing it, instead of merely being statistically associated with exposure to air pollution (and with other many conditions, from cold weather to low income) have proved to be difficult to quantify with high precision and confidence, largely because correlation is not causation. This book shows how to use recent advances in causal analytics and risk analysis to determine more accurately how reducing exposures affects human health risks. Quantitative Risk Analysis of Air Pollution Health Effects is divided into three parts. Part I focuses mainly on quantitative simulation modelling of biological responses to exposures and resulting health risks. It considers occupational risks from asbestos and crystalline silica as examples, showing how dynamic simulation models can provide insights into more effective policies for protecting worker health. Part II examines limitations of regression models and the potential to instead apply machine learning, causal analysis, and Bayesian network learning methods for more accurate quantitative risk assessment, with applications to occupational risks from inhalation exposures. Finally, Part III examines applications to public health risks from air pollution, especially fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution. The book applies freely available browser analytics software and data sets that allow readers to download data and carry out many of the analyses described, in addition to applying the techniques discussed to their own data. http://cox-associates.com:8899/

Safety Reliability and Risk Analysis

Second step: defines believes identified to be the main features of each of the steps P1 It is assumed that there is a unique definition for risk and the risk science has a unique and unitary approach to give all the answers.

Author: Sebastian Martorell

Publisher: CRC Press

ISBN: 9781482266481

Category: Technology & Engineering

Page: 3512

View: 131


Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis. Theory, Methods and Applications contains the papers presented at the joint ESREL (European Safety and Reliability) and SRA-Europe (Society for Risk Analysis Europe) Conference (Valencia, Spain, 22-25 September 2008). The book covers a wide range of topics, including: Accident and Incident Investigation; Crisi

Risk and Rationality

1982 Risk Analysis Research and Demonstration Act , H. R. 6159 , 97th Cong . , 2d sess . , sec . 2 , lines 19-24 . 17. See K. S. Shrader - Frechette , Risk Analysis and Scientific Method ( Boston : Reidel , 1985 ) , pp . 56-57 . 18.

Author: K. S. Shrader-Frechette

Publisher: Univ of California Press

ISBN: 9780520363700

Category: Philosophy

Page: 324

View: 852


This title is part of UC Press's Voices Revived program, which commemorates University of California Press’s mission to seek out and cultivate the brightest minds and give them voice, reach, and impact. Drawing on a backlist dating to 1893, Voices Revived makes high-quality, peer-reviewed scholarship accessible once again using print-on-demand technology. This title was originally published in 1991.