Progress In Decision Utility And Risk Theory

In this volume we present some of the papers delivered at FUR-IV - the Fourth International Conference on Founda tions and Applications of Utility, Risk and Decision Theory in Budapest, June 1988.

Author: Attila Chikán

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9789401131469

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 367

View: 932


In this volume we present some of the papers delivered at FUR-IV - the Fourth International Conference on Founda tions and Applications of Utility, Risk and Decision Theory in Budapest, June 1988. The FUR Conferences have provided an appreciated forum every two years since 1982 within which scientists can report recent issues and prospective applications of decision theory, and exchange ideas about controversial questions of this field. Focal points of the presented papers are: expected utility versus alterna tive utility models, concepts of risk and uncertainty, developments of game theory, and investigations of real decision making behaviour under uncertainty and/or in risky situations. We hope that this sample of papers will appeal to a wide spectrum of readers who are interested in and fami liar with this interesting and exciting issues of decision theory. A wide range of theoretical and practical questions is considered in papers included in this volume, and many of them closely related to economics. In fact, there were two Nobel-Laureates in economics among the participants: I. Herbert A. Simon (1978) and Maurice Allais (1988), who won the prize just after the conference. His paper deals with problems of cardinal utility. After a concise overview of the history and theory of cardinal utility he gives an estimate of the invariant cardinal utility function for its whole domain of variation (i. e.

Progress in Utility and Risk Theory

The observation that utility and risk theory now appears to be in a state of rapid change has prompted us to choose the title PROGRESS IN UTILITY AND RISK THEORY for the book, in the belief that science always moves from poorer to more ...

Author: G.M. Hagen

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9789400963511

Category: Social Science

Page: 279

View: 955


1. PROGRESS IN UTILITY AND RISK THEORY At the First International Congress of Utility and Risk Theory in Oslo 1982 (FUR-82) it appeared to be a widespread feeling among the participants that the conference signalled something like a paradigm shift in the field. This does not necessarily mean that old truths were discarded and replaced by new ones, but rather that new theories and new empirical evidence were brought forth, compelling old theories to be critically analyzed from new angels. Some of the papers presented at FUR-82 have been published by Reidel in 1983 in a volume edited by Stigum and Wenst0p. The present volume contains com mentaries on a number of the papers presented at the conference together with broader outlines of current views on the theory. The observation that utility and risk theory now appears to be in a state of rapid change has prompted us to choose the title PROGRESS IN UTILITY AND RISK THEORY for the book, in the belief that science always moves from poorer to more advanced paradigms or from weaker to more forceful theories. In other words, change is usually progress, even though intermediate stages in a para digm shift may be bewildering, to say the least.

Revolutionary Changes in Understanding Man and Society

Allais, Maurice [1979b], "The so-called Allais paradox and rational decisions under uncertainty", in: Allais and Hagen (eds.) 1979. Allais, Maurice [1983), "The foundations of the theory of utility and risk", in: Hagen and Wenstop (eds.) ...

Author: Johann Götschl

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9789401103695

Category: Philosophy

Page: 300

View: 169


JOHANN GOTSCHL Over the last decades, social philosophers, economists. sociologists, utility and game theorists, biologists, mathematicians, moral philosophers and philosophers have created totally new concepts and methods of understanding the function and role of humans in their modern societies. The years between 1953 and 1990 brought drastic changes in the scientific foundations and dynamic of today's society. A burst of entirely new, revolutionary ideas, similar to those which heralded the beginning of the twentieth century in physics, dominates the picture. This book also discusses the ongoing refutation of old concepts in the social sciences. Some of them are: the traditional concepts ofrationality, for example, based on maximization of interests, the linearity of axiomatic methods, methodological individualism, and the concept of a static society. Today the revolutionary change from a static view of our society to an evolutionary one reverberates through all social sciences and will dominate the twenty-first century. In an uncertain and risky world where cooperation and teamwork is getting more and more important, one cannot any longer call the maximization of one's own expectations of utility or interests "rational" .

Non Expected Utility and Risk Management

A Special Issue of the Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory Christian Gollier, Mark J. Machina ... “Increasing Risk: Another Definition,” in A. Chikan (Ed.), Progress in Decision, Utility and Risk Theory, Kluwer, Dordrecht.

Author: Christian Gollier

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9789401724401

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 150

View: 523


Expected utility provides simple, testable properties of the optimum behavior that should be displayed by risk-averse individuals in risky decisions. Simultaneously, given the existence of paradoxes under the expected utility paradigm, expected utility can only be regarded as an approximation of actual behavior. A more realistic model is needed. This is particularly true when treating attitudes toward small probability events: the standard situation for insurable risks. Non-Expected Utility and Risk Management examines whether the existing results in insurance economics are robust to more general models of behavior under risk.

Risk Decision and Rationality

1983, The Foundations of the Theory of Utility and Risk in O. Hagen and F. Wenstop, "Progress in Decision Theory", p. 3-131, Reidel, Dordrecht, 1984, 279 p. — : 1984, L'Utilité cardinale et sa détermination - Hypothéses, ...

Author: Bertrand Munier

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9789400940192

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 708

View: 446


Decision Theory has considerably developed in the late 1970's and the 1980's. The evolution has been so fast and far-r2aching that it has become increasingly difficult to keep track of the new state of the art. After a decade of new contributions, there was a need for an overview' of the field. This book is intended to fill the gap. The reader will find here thirty~nine selected papers which were given at FUR-III, the third international confe rence on the Foundations and applications of Utility, Risk and decision theories, held in Aix-en-Provence in June 1986. An introductory chapter will provide an overview of the main questions raised on the subject since the 17th Century and more particularly so in the last thirty years, as well as some elementary information on the experimental and theoretical results obtained. It is thus hoped that any reader with some basic background in either Economics, Hanagement or Operations Research will be able to read profitably the thirty-nine other chapters. Psychologists, Sociologists, Social Philosophers and other specialists of the social sciences will also read this book with interest, as will high-level practitioners of decision~making and advanced students in one of the abovementioned fields. An expository survey of this volume will be found at the end of the introductory chapter, so that any of the seven parts of the book can be put by the reader in due perspective.

Prospect Theory

Jaffray, Jean-Yves (1991a) “Linear Utility Theory and Belief Functions: A Discussion.” In Atilla Chikan (ed.), Progress in Decision, Utility and Risk Theory. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht. Jaffray, Jean-Yves (1991b) “Belief ...

Author: Peter P. Wakker

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 1139489100

Category: Business & Economics


View: 915


Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity, provides a comprehensive and accessible textbook treatment of the way decisions are made both when we have the statistical probabilities associated with uncertain future events (risk) and when we lack them (ambiguity). The book presents models, primarily prospect theory, that are both tractable and psychologically realistic. A method of presentation is chosen that makes the empirical meaning of each theoretical model completely transparent. Prospect theory has many applications in a wide variety of disciplines. The material in the book has been carefully organized to allow readers to select pathways through the book relevant to their own interests. With numerous exercises and worked examples, the book is ideally suited to the needs of students taking courses in decision theory in economics, mathematics, finance, psychology, management science, health, computer science, Bayesian statistics, and engineering.

Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice

This text beautifully explores the classical theory of choices under uncertainty including major applications and recent extensions. It combines usefulness, thoroughness, and clarity.

Author: Jean-Paul Chavas

Publisher: Elsevier

ISBN: 9780121706210

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 247

View: 498


The objective of this book is to present this analytical framework and to illustrate how it can be used in the investigation of economic decisions under risk. In a sense, the economics of risk is a difficult subject: it involves understanding human decisions in the absence of perfect information. How do we make decisions when we do not know some of events affecting us? The complexities of our uncertain world and of how humans obtain and process information make this difficult. In spite of these difficulties, much progress has been made. First, probability theory is the corner stone of risk assessment. This allows us to measure risk in a fashion that can be communicated among decision makers or researchers. Second, risk preferences are now better understood. This provides useful insights into the economic rationality of decision making under uncertainty. Third, over the last decades, good insights have been developed about the value of information. This helps better understand the role of information in human decision making and this book provides a systematic treatment of these issues in the context of both private and public decisions under uncertainty. * Balanced treatment of conceptual models and applied analysis * Considers both private and public decisions under uncertainty * Website presents application exercises in EXCEL

Generalized Expected Utility Theory

Pratt, J. (1964), 'Risk aversion in the small and in the large', Econometrica 32(1), 122–36. Prelec, D. (1990), “A “pseudo-endowment” effect and its implications for ... Progress in Decision, Utility and Risk Theory, Amsterdam, Kluwer.

Author: John Quiggin

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9789401121828

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 208

View: 113


Economic analysis of choice under uncertainty has been dominated by the expected utility (EU) model, yet the EU model has never been without critics. Psychologists accumulated evidence that individual choices under uncertainty were inconsistent with the predictions of the EU model. Applied work in areas such as finance was dominated by the simpler mean-variance analysis. In the 1980s this skepticism was dispelled as a number of generalizations of EU were proposed, most of which were capable of explaining evidence inconsistent with EU, while preserving transitivity and dominance. Generalized expected utility is now a flourishing subfield of economics, with dozens of competing models and considerable literature exploring their theoretical properties and comparing their empirical performance. But the EU model remains the principal tool for the analysis of choice under uncertainty. There is a view that generalized models are too difficult to handle or incapable of generating sharp results. This creates a need to show that the new models can be used in the kinds of economic analysis for which EU has been used, and that they can yield new and interesting results. This book meets this need by describing one of the most popular generalized models -- the rank-dependent expected utility model (RDEU), also known as anticipated utility, EU with rank-dependent preferences, the dual theory of choice under uncertainty, and simply as rank-dependent utility. As the many names indicate, the model has been approached in many ways by many scientists and for this reason, consideration of a single model sheds light on many of the concerns that have motivated the development of generalized utility models. The popularity of the RDEU model rests on its simplicity and tractability. The standard tools of analysis developed for EU theory may be applied to the RDEU model, but since RDEU admits behavior inconsistent with EU, the field of potential applications is widened. As such, the RDEU model is not as much a competitor to EU as an extension based on less restrictive assumptions.

Decision Space

“Group Decisions and Decisions for a Group.” In A. Chikán, ed., Progress in Decision, Utility and Risk Theory, pp. 271–9. Norwell, MA: Kluwer. 1991b. “The General Welfare as a Constitutional Goal.” In D. Speak and C. Peden, eds., ...

Author: Paul Weirich

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 9781139430418

Category: Science


View: 320


In Decision Space: Multidimensional Utility Analysis, first published in 2001, Paul Weirich increases the power and versatility of utility analysis and in the process advances decision theory. Combining traditional and novel methods of option evaluation into one systematic method of analysis, multidimensional utility analysis is a valuable tool. It provides formulations of important decision principles, such as the principle to maximize expected utility; enriches decision theory in solving recalcitrant decision problems; and provides in particular for the cases in which an expert must make a decision for a group of people. The multiple dimensions of this analysis create a decision space broad enough to accommodate all factors affecting an option's utility. The book will be of interest to advanced students and professionals working in the subject of decision theory, as well as to economists and other social scientists.

The Journal of Agricultural Economics Research

Geometric Models of Decision Making Under Uncertainty , ” Progress in Decision , Utility and Risk Theory . A. Chikán ( ed . ) . Dordrecht , Holland : Kluwer Academic Publishers . Hoffman , Kenneth , and Ray Kunze . 1961.



ISBN: UCR:31210009554088

Category: Agriculture


View: 697