Business Cycles Indicators and Forecasting

In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.

Author: James H. Stock

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

ISBN: 9780226774749

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 348

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The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.

Business Cycle Indicators

This text provides an introduction to business cycles and their theoretical and historical basis. It also includes work on early indicator research and provides examples of business cycle indicators.

Author: Karl Heinrich Oppenländer

Publisher:

ISBN: 1859724361

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 281

View: 519

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The pressure to produce explanations and forecasts and the economic dichotomies which insist on appearing, lead to a desire to deal with the description, analysis and forecast of the phenomenon of business cycles using economic indicators. This text provides an introduction to business cycles and their theoretical and historical basis. It also includes work on early indicator research and provides examples of business cycle indicators.

Business Cycle Indicators

Indicators Board's economics program . To ensure that Business Cycle Indicators is one of the most useful resources for monitoring current economic conditions , suggestions pertaining to content are welcomed and should be addressed to ...

Author:

Publisher:

ISBN: PSU:000052794568

Category: Business cycles

Page:

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Business Cycle Indicators

The Description for this book, Business Cycle Indicators, Volume II: Basic Data on Cyclical Indicators, will be forthcoming.

Author: Geoffrey H. Moore

Publisher:

ISBN: OCLC:1024424988

Category:

Page: 179

View: 442

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Transportation Indicators and Business Cycles

Moore, G.H. (1950), Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Recessions. Occasional Paper 31, New York: NBER; Reprinted in G.H. Moore, editor (1961), Business Cycle Indicators, Volume I. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press ...

Author: Kajal Lahiri

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing

ISBN: 9780857241481

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 210

View: 148

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Addressing the role that the transportation sector plays in business cycle propagation, this title presents an index of the different indicators for this sector to identify its state, and predict its future, using various statistical procedures.

Annual Report on Business Cycle Indicators

J3K4 | 1783 经济变動觀測資料年報 ANNUAL REPORT ON BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS 昭和57年8月 AUGUST 1982 経済企画庁調査局編 ECONOMIC PLANNING AGENCY JAPANESE GOVERNMENT - - OCT 1982 IBRARIES 经济变動觀測資料年報 ANNUAL REPORT ON BUSINESS.

Author:

Publisher:

ISBN: STANFORD:36105015102325

Category: Business cycles

Page:

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Econometric Business Cycle Research

The main conclusion of the book is that simultaneous equation models are the best vehicle for EBCR, if all its goals are to be attained simultaneously.

Author: Jan Jacobs

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

ISBN: 9781461555919

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 228

View: 511

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Econometric Business Cycle Research deals with econometric business cycle research (EBCR), a term introduced by the Nobel-laureate Jan Tinbergen for his econometric method of testing (economic) business cycle theories. EBCR combines economic theory and measurement in the study of business cycles, i.e., ups and downs in overall economic activity. We assess four methods of EBCR: business cycle indicators, simultaneous equations models, vector autoregressive systems and real business indicators. After a sketch of the history of the methods, we investigate whether the methods meet the goals of EBCR: the three traditional ones, description, forecasting and policy evaluation, and the one Tinbergen introduced, the implementation|testing of business cycles. The first three EBCR methods are illustrated for the Netherlands, a typical example of a small, open economy. The main conclusion of the book is that simultaneous equation models are the best vehicle for EBCR, if all its goals are to be attained simultaneously. This conclusion is based on a fairly detailed assessment of the methods and is not over-turned in the empirical illustrations. The main conclusion does not imply the end of other EBCR methods. Not all goals have to be met with a single vehicle, other methods might serve the purpose equally well - or even better. For example, if one is interested in business cycle forecasts, one might prefer a business cycle indicator or vector autoregressive system. A second conclusion is that many ideas/concepts that play an important role in current discussions about econometric methodology in general and EBCR in particular, were put forward in the 1930s and 1940s. A third conclusion is that it is difficult, if not impossible, to compare the outcomes of RBC models to outcomes of the other three methods, because RBC modellers are not interested in modelling business cycles on an observation-per-observation basis. A more general conclusion in this respect is that methods should adopt the same concept of business cycles to make them comparable.